How Much Risk, and Risk of What? A Closer Look at Pretrial Risk Assessment
Visiting speaker
Cristopher Moore
Professor, Santa Fe Institute
Past Talk
Hybrid
Thursday
Nov 14, 2024
Watch video
3:30 pm
EST
Virtual
177 Huntington Ave.
11th floor
11th floor
Devon House
58 St Katharine's Way
London E1W 1LP, UK
58 St Katharine's Way
London E1W 1LP, UK
Many courts use risk assessment algorithms to advise judges whether to release a defendant pretrial, and if so under what conditions. These algorithms are highly controversial, and have been criticized for perpetuating historical biases. On the other hand, they can remind judges that most defendants can be safely released, and help us think about how much risk—and risk of what—could justify detention. But they can only play this role if they are transparent, and if judges know what their outputs mean. Vague labels like “high risk” are not enough. We audited a widely-used risk assessment algorithm for accuracy and fairness using a dataset of fifteen thousand defendants in Albuquerque, New Mexico. By digging deeper than previous studies, we learned that most crime is not pretrial crime, rearrest for high-level felonies is very rare, and that most people who “fail to appear” in court miss only one hearing. We also audited proposed state laws, treating them as algorithms, and showed that they would detain many people unnecessarily while only preventing a small fraction of crime. We close with some reasons that computer scientists should engage in studies like this, and how doing so can broaden your view of the both algorithms and human systems.
About the speaker
About the speaker
Cristopher Moore received his B.A. in Physics, Mathematics, and Integrated Science from Northwestern University, and his Ph.D. in Physics from Cornell. From 2000 to 2012 he was a professor at the University of New Mexico, with joint appointments in Computer Science and Physics. Since 2012, Moore has been a resident professor at the Santa Fe Institute; he has also held visiting positions at École Normale Superieure, École Polytechnique, Université Paris 7, École Normale Superieure de Lyon, Northeastern University, the University of Michigan, and Microsoft Research. He has written 160 papers at the boundary between mathematics, physics, and computer science, ranging from quantum computing, social networks, and phase transitions in NP-complete problems and Bayesian inference, to risk assessment in criminal justice. He is an elected Fellow of the American Physical Society, the American Mathematical Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. With Stephan Mertens, he is the author of The Nature of Computation from Oxford University Press.
Cristopher Moore received his B.A. in Physics, Mathematics, and Integrated Science from Northwestern University, and his Ph.D. in Physics from Cornell. From 2000 to 2012 he was a professor at the University of New Mexico, with joint appointments in Computer Science and Physics. Since 2012, Moore has been a resident professor at the Santa Fe Institute; he has also held visiting positions at École Normale Superieure, École Polytechnique, Université Paris 7, École Normale Superieure de Lyon, Northeastern University, the University of Michigan, and Microsoft Research. He has written 160 papers at the boundary between mathematics, physics, and computer science, ranging from quantum computing, social networks, and phase transitions in NP-complete problems and Bayesian inference, to risk assessment in criminal justice. He is an elected Fellow of the American Physical Society, the American Mathematical Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. With Stephan Mertens, he is the author of The Nature of Computation from Oxford University Press.
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