While aggregated mobile device location data have been extensively used to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, relationships between mobility behavior and the transmission of other respiratory pathogens are less understood. Understanding the influence of human mobility on endemic pathogens is crucial for predictive purposes, especially as perturbed circulation can lead to overlapping epidemics of different pathogens, putting extreme strain on healthcare systems. In this seminar, I will present research investigating the effects of population behavior on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle, Washington, during pre- and post-pandemic years, using detailed data from a citywide respiratory pathogen surveillance study and high-resolution cellphone mobility data. I will highlight mobility metrics that are consistent leading indicators of outbreaks and compare patterns across pathogens with different transmission modes, seasonal cycles, and age distributions of infection. Additionally, I will discuss recent work linking the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of influenza in the US and future plans to explore the effects of decreased social distancing and waning immunity on the post-pandemic reemergence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Seattle.
Dr. Amanda Perofsky is a research scientist in the Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine at the University of Washington. Prior to joining UW, she completed her PhD in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior with Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers at the University of Texas at Austin and a postdoctoral fellowship with Dr. Cécile Viboud at the Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health. Dr. Perofsky’s research focuses on the ecological, evolutionary, and behavioral drivers of respiratory virus infections, with aims to improve infectious disease surveillance and better understand and predict recurring and emerging outbreaks. She applies statistical and computational approaches to study respiratory virus transmission patterns and epidemiology, with a particular focus on influenza and SARS-CoV-2. She also produces operational forecasts and projections of respiratory virus outbreaks.
Dr. Amanda Perofsky is a research scientist in the Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine at the University of Washington. Prior to joining UW, she completed her PhD in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior with Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers at the University of Texas at Austin and a postdoctoral fellowship with Dr. Cécile Viboud at the Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health. Dr. Perofsky’s research focuses on the ecological, evolutionary, and behavioral drivers of respiratory virus infections, with aims to improve infectious disease surveillance and better understand and predict recurring and emerging outbreaks. She applies statistical and computational approaches to study respiratory virus transmission patterns and epidemiology, with a particular focus on influenza and SARS-CoV-2. She also produces operational forecasts and projections of respiratory virus outbreaks.
