|Talks|

Feeding contact data into models of epidemic spread for actionable insights

Visiting speaker
Hybrid
Past Talk
Alain Barrat
Centre de Physique Theorique (CPT) Marseille
Wed, Mar 19, 2025
5:00 PM UTC
Wed, Mar 19, 2025
5:00 PM UTC
In-person
4 Thomas More St
London E1W 1YW, UK
The Roux Institute
Room
100 Fore Street
Portland, ME 04101
Network Science Institute
2nd floor
Network Science Institute
11th floor
177 Huntington Ave
Boston, MA 02115
Room
58 St Katharine's Way
London E1W 1LP, UK

Talk recording

Computational models offer a crucial setting to test strategies to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, providing useful insights to applied public health. To be actionable, models need to be informed by data that describe the structure  of interactions between individuals. While data coming from different sources and at different resolutions have become increasingly available, their integration into computational frameworks poses a number of challenges.

I will first give an example of how high resolution data sets can be used to build realistic agent-based models, suggest,  evaluate and compare various mitigation strategies. As such detailed data sets are however rarely available, I will discuss whether models fed with less detailed data lead to the same actionable conclusions. Moreover, I will present  recently developed methods to create surrogate data with realistic properties, that can be used to create arbitrarily long synthetic data sets, describing realistic contact patterns in various settings, to feed models of epidemic spread in a population.

Finally, while most studies are concerned on how the structure of contacts shapes the spread of a disease, I will address a reverse question: do different spreading processes unfolding on a network lead to the same propagation patterns? This has consequences in the role of models in decision-making, as many results on propagation patterns and on the identification of structures with high spreading power or to monitor in surveillance programs are typically obtained using very simplified contagion processes. Our results imply in particular that numerical simulations using simplified settings can bring important insights even in the case of a new emerging disease whose properties are not yet well known.

About the speaker
Alain Barrat is senior researcher at the Center for Theoretical Physics in Marseilles, France. He has also been research scientist at the Institute for Scientific Interchange in Turin, Italy from 2006 to 2019 and Specially Appointed Professor at the Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative (Tokyo, Japan) from 2019 to 2022. From 2014 to 2020, he has been vice-president treasurer of the Complex Systems Society. He currently serves as Divisional Associate Editor of Physical Review Letters, and as Editor of JSTAT and of Advances in Complex Systems. His research focuses on complex networks and interdisciplinary aspects of statistical physics. He is co-founder of the SocioPatterns collaboration, which focuses on temporal networks of contacts between individuals, from the data collection to their analysis and use in fields ranging from epidemiology to social sciences.
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Mar 19, 2025